Gwynne Dyer - Iran: the slow-motion crisis

cyprusmail: Everybody will drag their feet as much as possible, because nobody, including the Bush administration, really wants the United States to attack Iran. There may be as much as eight to 12 more months of diplomatic manoeuvring before the crisis hits. But there is going to be a crisis, and it is going to be big and dangerous.

..There is a significant possibility that President George W. Bush is bluffing when he hints that he might attack Iran if it doesn't halt its nuclear fuel programme. He doesn't actually say he will, just that all options are on the table - and his options are not actually very good. It's clear that the Bush administration, already up to its neck militarily in Iraq, is deeply reluctant to get into a war with Iran, and the best evidence for that is the recent US National Intelligence Estimate, which says that Iran is 10 years away from developing nuclear weapons. Just six months ago, it was saying five years. Read more