Tuesday, August 27, 2013
A proportionate response to the unleashing of chemical weapons in Syria by persons unknown is not bombarding the country with Tomahawk missiles on the hunch that the Syrian regime was reponsible. The BBC are speculating on Worldservice radio that the response is likely to be a 'short sharp shock', designed to shift Assad from his current course. It won't be just that. It's a blank cheque. Once 'we' engage militarily Bashar's downfall is a political necessity - because it will be our war and failure is not an option. However 'success' in these circumstances is a remote prospect given that the war makers themselves cannot define success, even if they could it will take much more than Kerry's moral compass and his outrage to bring it about - certainly if regime change is the undisclosed goal. If the aim is to demonstrate that the US takes it red lines seriously, then perhaps that may be doable. As for the rest, expect bloody chaos.