Disintegration of Iraq would pose multiple problems for Israel

dailystar: The possible fragmentation of Iraq is a most unwelcome prospect from the Israeli point of view. Some observers, locked in perceptions of a bygone era, might still think otherwise. In the 1960s and 1970s, when Israel was deeply involved in conflict with core Middle Eastern states - Egypt, Syria and Jordan - it was extremely apprehensive about possible Iraqi wartime military assistance to its Arab enemies. Israel consequently developed a particularly friendly relationship with the non-Arab periphery of the region, particularly Iran, and actively pursued a covert relationship with the Kurds in Iraq in support of their secessionist struggle against the central government in Baghdad. Israel's interests have, however, radically changed since then, as have the concepts of core and periphery in the Middle East.

Israel has made its peace with key players of the Arab core, Egypt and Jordan. It maintains an uneasy modus vivendi with Syria and low-intensity conflict with the Palestinians. The balance of power between Israel and its Arab neighbors has shifted markedly in Israel's favor. Generally, in the last two decades or so, the Arabs have been considerably weakened, with former regional powers having lost their hegemonic status. Egypt no longer wields the regional clout it once enjoyed. Syria under President Bashar Assad is but a shadow of its former self. It has been forced out of Lebanon and is substantially isolated. Iraq has been crushed by the American invasion, and Saudi Arabia, even with oil prices going through the roof, is not as wealthy as it once was. Moreover, the kingdom is suffering from domestic terrorism, and has had a somewhat less intimate relationship with the U.S. since Sept. 11, 2001.

In the eastern part of the Arab world, where the Syrian and the Iraqi Baath regimes once vied for supremacy, there is now an Arab leadership void. The power vacuum is being filled by an expanding Iran, the likes of which the region has never witnessed in the modern era. Determined to obtain a nuclear capability, Iran is presently also buoyed by an unprecedented sense of Shiite ascendancy. Iraq has become the first Shiite-dominated Arab state, the Shiites are on the rise in Lebanon, and Jordan's King Abdullah was, therefore, pretty much on the mark in his anxious reference in late 2004 to the emergent "Shiite crescent" of influence. Read more

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