Radical al-Sadr key to success in Iraq

Juan Cole

dailynews: Two years ago, U.S. military forces in Iraq viewed the rise of the Mahdi Militia with alarm and set out to kill or capture its leader, radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. They failed. Our forces vastly underestimated al-Sadr's popularity, watching as his supporters rose up to protect him in the battle of Najaf.

Though the U.S. military eventually won that battle, al-Sadr himself wasn't weakened. He simply dropped out of sight for a time. Now, this former American Enemy No. 1 has reemerged - as the single, indispensable key to building a sustainable Iraqi government.

Al-Sadr's anti-American radicalism is the same as it ever was. He demands our troops withdraw, denounces Israel, commands a powerful militia and continues to reach out to Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and rejectionist Palestinian leaders. But his positioning has changed markedly. As leader of a coalition that has the swing vote in the Shiite alliance in the Iraq Parliament, with a strong social movement behind him, al-Sadr is an Iraqi kingmaker.

The reason: Al-Sadr remains the only major Shiite leader with credibility among fundamentalist Sunnis. We either deal with him or consign our efforts to build consensus in Iraq to failure.

Al-Sadr's importance - and the bind it puts the United States in - was vividly on display this week when Secretary of State Rice, joined by her British counterpart Jack Straw, arrived in Iraq to try to break a logjam over which Iraqi politician would become prime minister in a new government.

The incumbent prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite who in February was nominated for a second term by a single vote, has since been unable to build a successful coalition. He accuses the Bush administration of trying to deny him the seat of power - and the addition of hyper-nationalist al-Sadr to his political bloc is reportedly the U.S. dealbreaker.

Shiite Muslims, who make up some 60% of the Iraqi population, recognize al-Sadr as the scion of a distinguished line of clerics and nationalist leaders. That is why thousands in the Shiite ghettos idolize him. More difficult to understand, but no less real, is the respect al-Sadr has earned from hard-line Sunnis.

That street influence has translated into real political capital. In the leadup to the elections for a regular four-year parliament on Dec. 15, al-Sadr was invited to join the United Iraqi Alliance, which groups the main Shiite religious parties into parliament's largest bloc. His followers won, and he accepted, 32 out of 130 seats held by the alliance. Because the other two main parties in the coalition are rivals for influence, al-Sadr's bloc is a swing vote.

The Bush administration has on more than one occasion woefully underestimated al-Sadr. Earlier attempts to ignore or sideline him ended in disaster, as did the frontal assault on his movement.

In today's Iraq, ignorance is the opposite of bliss. The radical cleric is not going to quietly disappear from the scene. The U.S. has no choice but to take al-Jaafari's advice and engage al-Sadr politically, recognizing him as the force he is. Link

db: Neocons - Happy Iraqi Freedom Day suckers