Gwynne Dyer: Cuba with two presidents?

journalnow: "It wouldn't be outrageous," said Ana Faya of her suspicion that Cuba and Venezuela might unite one of these days. After all, the senior analyst at the Canadian Foundation for the Americas (FOCAL) in Ottawa pointed out, the idea of uniting Latin American countries has been around since the revolutions of Bolivar and San Martin against Spain almost two centuries ago. And she certainly knows how Cuban Communists think: For 10 years, until she fled to Canada in 2000, she was an official of the Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party.

The Cuban regime's biggest problem by far is: Who succeeds Fidel Castro? The official answer is his youngest brother Raul, currently Cuba's vice-president and defense minister, but ideologically committed Cuban Communists still have problems with the idea that political power can be inherited. They also suspect Raul of being soft on capitalism.

Fidel Castro has had a remarkably rapid recovery from a fall last October that broke his arm and shattered his kneecap in eight places, but he will turn 80 next August. He has ruled Cuba for 46 years, but he will soon have to be replaced. If the revolution is to survive, his replacement had better be a man with contemporary revolutionary credentials, a man with the charisma and resources to keep the show on the road. A man, perhaps, like Hugo Chavez. Read more

db: Perhaps the White House might care to get behind this idea - which would be a solid step towards the democratization of Cuba, and democracy is after all a core driver in all that the Leader of The Free World undertakes. Alas, if only it were that simple. The unification of the two countries would not, of course, fit with the Bush doctrine - because newly exposed markets must, as a priority, open themselves up for a good international seeing-to [otherwise there would be no point in democratizing them would there] and Hugo Chavez is already ahead of the game on this score - currently rolling back the trend in Venezuela and benefiting the poor and the needy by so doing. What an absolute bastard. Hence it is unlikely that Hugo will get to rule over this former jewel in the crown of US Mafiosi.