Iraq: The Al-Sadr Factor

time: For Iraq's Shi'ite-led government, the stampede in Baghdad that killed nearly 1,000 Shi'ite pilgrims last week may become a political calamity as well. The stampede was set off by rumors that a suicide bomber was about to blow himself up on the bridge leading to one of the city's most sacred Shi'ite shrines. Now public outrage at the government's handling of the disaster has raised the possibility that voters will express their anger by rejecting Iraq's proposed constitution when it comes up for a vote in October.

The disaster could provide fuel for efforts by Sunni opponents of the proposed constitution to court Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi'ite cleric who has twice led armed uprisings against U.S. troops. The base of his support is in the Shi'ite slum of Sadr City, home to one-third of Baghdad's population. If al-Sadr called on his poor Shi'ite followers to join Sunnis in opposing the charter, it is likely it would be defeated. Abdul Salam al-Qubaisi, spokesman for the Association of Muslim Scholars, a hard-line Sunni group, claims al-Sadr is working to bring out the no vote. "We need Muqtada's support to defeat the constitution," he says. "We are already working closely with him." Read more

db: It's beyond belief that al-Sadr would support the constitution. That doesn't mean it wont happen