Lessons in Insurgency from the NIC

"Insurgency has existed as long as the powerful have frustrated the weak to the point of violence. It is simply a strategy of desperation in which those with no other options turn to protracted, asymmetric violence, psychological warfare, and political mobilization. In some modes, insurgents seek to attain their objectives directly by wearing down the dominant power. In other forms, particularly the one developed by Mao Zedong and refined by his disciples, asymmetric methods are used to rectify an adverse conventional military balance, with ultimate victory coming through conventional means once parity or something like it is attained. Ultimately, though, the result is the same: the weak avoid defeat and, over time, the power balance changes and they become stronger.

......Yet what is missing from the strategy of the Iraqi insurgents is a "positive" dimension. Most victorious insurgents have been able to create the impression both that the government or occupier cannot create a stable or just society, and that they can. So far, the Iraqi insurgents have not projected a vision of the type of nation they would create if they expel the Coalition. Again, this is not unusual:this is very young and immature insurgency. If it is sustained, such a positive dimension to the insurgent strategy is likely to emerge." Link

Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project:
Insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan: Change and Continuity